Martinology is in full swing right now

by Rachel Baker on June 16, 2014

The fourth season of Game of Thrones has just wrapped up on HBO; and many people are wondering when the last two (and maybe last three?) books will come out.

FiveThirtyEight has a really good (and what appears to be scientific) article that predicts when George R.R. Martin will come otu with his next book.

Martin’s novels can approach over 400,000 words and 1,000 pages in length — these are no small undertakings. And after he spent the first decade of the 2000s struggling to produce the most recent two books in the series, some fans have wrestled with the idea that Martin may not be able to finish writing the next two before he’s overtaken by the hit HBO show.

As a result, “Martinology” — the pseudoscientific process by which fans attempt to predict the release date for the forthcoming “The Winds of Winter” (“TWOW”), the sixth book in the series – has never been a more popular avenue of amateur study. A vast number of predicted release dates already have flown aerodynamically by. But there are a handful of entirely reasonable approaches some fans have used to infer when “TWOW” will come out.

In August 2013, one reader used back-of-the-envelope math to estimate an April 2014 release date for “TWOW,” based on assumptions about Martin’s progress, the rate at which he writes and the expected length of the book.

Perhaps the most encouraging analysis comes from another reader, who did some sleuthing and deduced from a gap between August 2014 and May 2015 in Martin’s rarely empty appearance schedule that the writer may have some plans to publish in the spring or summer of 2015. This seven-month gap is consistent with another in Martin’s schedule from November 2010 to June 2011, when the fifth book in the series, “A Dance With Dragons,” was formally announced.

Order your copy of Predicting When ‘Game of Thrones’ Author George R. R. Martin Will Come Out With His Next Book .

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